Throughout the pages of fxVolatility.com, traders are encouraged to focus on volatility and probability in terms of Forex markets; however, the concepts also apply to equities, options, commodities, and futures. As many traders are already aware, Forex markets often display significant volatility catching many participants by surprise. However, with a simple understanding of descriptive statistics, traders could soon find themselves ahead of the curve.
Many traders – both new and experienced – often find themselves at a loss attempting to understand why Forex markets tend to experience extended volatility both intraday and over the long haul. In simple terms, much of the seemingly erratic moves are really the product of institutional order flow, causing larger movements within markets. While the aforementioned explanation is almost infuriating simple, we must understand, large money is really the pure catalyst behind extended movements within markets, not at-home investors. We can argue that by acting in unison on common technical signals, the mass army retail investors do indeed add to the issue of erratic volatility within markets.
However, volatility caused by the retail community is 'quick-shot' volatility at, or near areas where commonplace technical signals (like Stochastics rolling under +80, for example) unfold. What's more, quick-shot volatility caused by retail traders is not 'trend sustaining', as really, institutions are the only entities with enough buying or selling power to prolong trends.
Moreover, the individual investor is often set up for failure from the start, because not only is he or she not able to 'see' institutional order flow (imagine the ticker tape in equities), but because traditional 'pre-loaded' information he/she is receiving is often 'missing' critical components, all at the same time.
The question is then, how can traders transcend failing technicals, increasing volatility and jaded information- to achieve greater insights and perceptions into serrated movements within Forex.
In other words, "How can we perceive volatility before it occurs?" Over the following pages, I will attempt to explain how using principals of descriptive statistics can help identify trending and reversals, while also foreseeing volatility within almost any charting timeframe. In the end, we will break through market volatility with a greater understanding of the dynamic movements of subset distributions, while also utilizing common probability within descriptive statistics to capitalize on market action.
It is important to note that even when traders embody substantial technical and fundamental knowledge, risk prevails without the proper understanding of the larger probability and volatility paradigm behind currency trading.
Here, traders are encouraged to boldly challenge typical pre-conceived notions of technical and fundamental analysis, in an effort to see beyond 'the accepted standard' retail traders are told to believe daily. The 'accepted standard' does not presently uphold volatility and probability as important aspects of markets or trading. However, given that 80% to 95% (depending on who you talk to) of retail Forex traders lose, while many retail brokerages actually take the opposite side of their trades, perhaps the at-home trader isn't supposed to know anything more than the 'accepted standard'. Traders who understand descriptive statistics though, will find greater clarity and perception of volatility within intraday and longer-term movements unfolding in markets.
Within Forex and trading, there is no holy grail; thus, please do not read the following with the firm belief that you will never again be faced with confusion, unclear volatility, or losses in markets. What you are about to learn is an incredibly effective guidance tool helping identify trending, volatility and at times, reversals; however, even the concepts here must be used with prudence and common sense.
You are about to read about descriptive statistics, which within itself has many different approaches, methodologies and studies. I will not delve into the justification of math underneath most statistical concepts here. Instead, I am presenting descriptive statistics from a simple, conceptual framework. However, there are many resources available to explain the empiricism of descriptive statistics on the Internet and in your local library; you will also find plenty of recommended reading in the bibliography at the end of the book, should you chose to learn more about the subject (which I highly recommend).
Never forget that economics and fundamentals rule all…at least, over the long haul. Traders who do not take the time to properly uncover the true economic paradigm within markets –and the future possibilities of such– will likely often find themselves on the wrong side of the trade, especially those who hold positions during longer timeframes. While the concepts presented within Volatility Illuminated are designed to specifically help traders navigate intraday movements and volatility within markets, we have no excuse to ever slack on our fundamental research. Please take time to do the proper research every day.